And, the Budget

The budget was, as any reasonable person was expecting, a solid one to stave off or be carried into an election. Very smart political budget with specific targetting of the "Tim Horton's/Canadian Tire" crowd, with all eyes on rural Quebec and suburban Ontario. Terrible economic budget, of course, but it's a minority parliament, what were ideologues expecting? It wasn't a budget of ideology, but politics, the PM was allowed to get away with an ideological budget in 2006 because it was immediately after an election. Just because this wasn't as fiscally conservative as the first doesn't mean it's the new fiscal direction of this government. It's pure politics, nothing more, trying to make the CPC seem more "compassionate," and trying to get Canada used to the idea of a CPC majority. Do I like all the spending? Of course not, but any idiot could see the political uses of this budget, and how it could be relevant towards building a sustainable Conservative coalition. Think long-term.

I wasn't expecting an election from the budget, as I correctly assumed that at least one of the opposition leaders would put their political career ahead of partisan opposition to a Conservative budget that was intentionally made so hard to oppose. No parties wanted an election, and Duceppe gave the other two opposition parties a great rhetorical advantage by giving them this chance to oppose the CPC with no serious repercussions. As an aside, I'm assuming that the PMO was saving universal Income Splitting for a possible campaign, as a prime platform pillar, as it's a slam-dunk one.

The most interesting repercussions here are for Quebec, and its elections. They are, of course, going to be pivotal to the political health of federal Canada. If Boisclair wins, then Dion insantly gains 10x more credibility, and it will be seen as a repudiation of the PM's soft federalism. If the best possible solution, a Charest minority with Dumont opposition, comes about, this reverberates back to Ottawa as well. It's a huge blow to the morale of the PQ/BQ campaign machine, and a sign that there are federal seats to be had for the CPC in ADQ country. Things are only going to get more interesting.