American Stylings

Now we have Elizabeth May running in Central Nova- Mackay country. To quote myself:

"This is quite possibly the stupidest thing ever. The Greens don't need more publicity, the environment is the flavour of the month, by far. The Greens need to prove that their support isn't a paper-tiger- that they can get 10% if the popular vote, win a seat, and prove they're a legitimate party- instead of being a "protest" vote for people to stick their polling numbers in, where all that support will melt away to real parties in an election. May choosing this ridiculous strategy does nothing to move the Green party forward.

This isn't good for the CPC either. A strong Green party splits the left, steals votes from the LPC and NDP, and could help the CPC slip in and win a few close ridings. The PMO needs to do everything possible to empower the Greens, while May is just shooting herself in the foot here."

Now, to American politics! It's roughly a year and three-quarters to the election, and the better part of a year before primaries are starting, so predictions seem to be fairly useless. It'll be interesting to watch, though, assuming we don't all get sick of the drama. Now, my intelligent picks right now are Gore/Obama vs Romney/Guiliani, not because I like them the best, but because I think it's more likely to end up like that. Ask me a few months ago for the GOP ticket and I'd have said McCain/Huckabee, but I've changed my mind. Let's go over a few things and then to the seperate parties:

-I've always supported Governors for President. Being El Presidente is an administrative job, not a legislative one, and you can have all the positions in the world and be an amazing Senate leader, but that doesn't guarentee you'll run an effective government. Governors (and generals) have the prior administrative experience to do this. History proves this all, as well, as Governors historically beat the hell out of Senators both in terms of winning elections, and in effectively governing, especially towards foreign policy. There's abberations to this, of course, but it's a good general rule of thumb to go with.

-This is the weakest GOP crop in years. If Jeb Bush's last name wasn't Bush, he'd be a slam-dunk candidate, but that's not the case, so it's a moot point. The primaries are going to be very interesting in terms of the Republican soul. It's going to be a brutal and dirty fight between the social conservative wing and the old-style Goldwater Republicans, and the former are going to win out, because they have the clout and the machinery to succeed. That's why the big three (Romney, Guiliani, and McCain) are going to be desperately pandering to the social conservatives, the old flip-flop, and it's going to be sickening. The winner in the primaries will be the one that's the most convincing at pandering to the religious right, however, more on that later.

The Democrats:

-Clinton doesn't have a chance in hell. She inherited all of her husbands's fame, money, and political machinery, which guarentees her the old college try, and she wouldn't make a bad president, either, she's smart and rather competent. However, there's a lot of smart and competent people within the Beltway and that doesn't make them good presidential candidates. She has no charisma, everything she says is entirely focus-grouped, she rubs people the wrong way, and when it gets down and dirty versus charismatic Obama and Edwards, she'll be exposed. That, and another Clinton or Bush in the White House would make me puke. The Clinton political machine won't win this one.

-Obama's a perfect VP candidate. He has the charisma of JFK, and he'll make waves. However, he's a senator, which is a major strike against him, and he has no experience. My main problem with him is that, in the Illinois legislature, he abstained on every major issue. This is smart politics, as it allows him to define himself on his own choosing when the time comes, but it's dirty and rather manipulative. Personally, he's just not a man I want running the West Wing, because he has no foreign policy experience, and there's no guarentees he'll run a well-oiled White House like a Governor can. Give him VP and let him spend four years charming people's pants off and gaining executive experience. As well, he could be key in winning the Industrial Northeast and its electoral college dominance.

-Edwards is charismatic, but that won't get him far with Obama in the running, and he didn't carry the South as his VP nomination was intended to do. He has no use if he can't bring in Democratic votes in the South, and I just don't see him getting very far against the big names.

-Richardson is my favourite candidate from both sides. The man has cabinet experience (in Energy, a relevant position for sure), UN experience, tonnes of foreign policy experience, and the administrative experience from being a Governor. He'd make the best president out of all of them, and is the perfect darkhorse. I can only see his support build as more attention is placed on finding a competent president and less on personal charisma (a reactionary movement after eight years of folksy bumbling) . He'd carry the Hispanic vote, too.

-Gore is my pick for the candidacy. He'll let Clinton and Obama beat the hell out of each other for a few months, wasting money and political capital, and he'll swoop in as the avenging environmentalist angel. There'll be a hot, dry summer, the environmental hysteria will get worse and worse, the cult will build, and Gore will take it. He has the experience that Obama doesn't, both in terms of winning presidential elections and in being part of the executive wing, he has the charisma that Clinton doesn't, and he has hordes of environmentalists that'd fight to the death for him. Put money on it.

-I like Vilsack and Dodd because they spend time on the Daily Show. Vilsack/Obama in '12!

The Republicans:

-Romney will take it. It comes down to which of the big names can pander most effectively to the socon base, and he'll do it. If the Mormonism comes up, he can do what JFK did in West Virginia with Catholicism, make it an issue of bigotry. Paint people who vote against him as bigots, voting against his personal religious beliefs, and demonize them. That, and he's still on his first wife...He was a good governor, and has the charisma and presidential "aura."

-Awww, I still feel bad for McCain. He won my love in 2000 and still hasn't lost most of it. But he just looks tired, he's lost the drive and appeal that carried him in 2000, and his pandering just isn't convincing. He's running on name right now and it won't last. The support of the Iraq war will cost him, and I just don't think he has the energy to beat out a driven Romney. I'm sure he'll be savaged in the primaries by the socon attack machine, as well, history simply repeating itself.

-Speaking of being savaged in the primaries....You can bet good money that Guiliani will never recover from South Carolina. The videos of him saying abortions should be subsidized, of him in drag being kissed by Donald Trump...he's not going to be able to "trump" this all with his tough on crime/security message. GOP politics are just too dirty for an urban New Yorker with a socially liberal past to get through, no matter how hard on terror or crime he may be. Which is a pity, he'd have great influence in carrying parts of the Industrial Northeast.

-Gingrich will be making a run for it. Won't get anywhere, but why the hell else would he randomly tell everyone about his infidelities? So that it doesn't become a possible election issue...

I'd personally like to see Richardson/Obama vs McCain/Guiliani. But it won't happen, and Al Gore is going to be the next president of the United States.